Weekly Look Back + TNF Action - 10/30
What hit? What didn't? What Pods Are trending?
G’day, Sharps. If you’ve been following along, we are updating our posting cadence and content to continue to improve and get you more value out of our content.
What’s changing?
We’ll be increasing focus on highlighting trending shows and start to roll out PodSharp Certified (PC). PC picks will be using all the data we’ve collected to pull out recommendations that have a 65%+ chance of hitting. The team is working hard to continually update and tweak our algorithm so on top of our best in class tools, we can make 2-3 recommendations a week that have a higher likelihood to hit. Excited to have a few rolling out this weekend and continue to grow this new offering.
Podcast Performance
We’ve been tracking bets since 9/26, and we’ve found recommendations from all tracked podcasts hit at 48% so far. This points to a few pieces worth noting:
Podcasts pump out a lot of content, and therefore need to put out a LOT of recommendations. With such high volume it seems Vegas knows best and a standalone rec will always net out at a coinflip (it’s called gambling for a reason).
As we collect more data, we are building an understanding of what signals best help inform recommendations (type of bet, podcast performance, league/sport, etc.) along with the likelihood of pick volume. How often does 5 recommendations hit vs. 9? Does 2 recommendations carry any value?
Top Podcasts
Of 27 podcasts making recommendations, 13 are above 50%, one is at 50%, and 13 are below that mark. To highlight a few, we currently have 3 standing above the 60% mark. None of this is possible without these podcasts, so worth a listen or a follow if you’re looking to add or change up your podcast rotation.
The Pat Mayo Experience (66.7%) - Focusing on NFL, Golf and UFC, this has been our hottest show over the past month with lots of good NFL insights and his UFC stuff hits much more often than not.
Bet Sweats (64.7%) - From the BetMGM network, Bet Sweats has been hitting a ton in college and NFL as of late.
Hammer Dahn (63.2%) - The Pat Mcafee boys have been hot lately after a slow start to the year. They’ve been on an NFL scorcher as of late and potentially worth tailing.
Last Week Look-Back
NFL went 5-3 and is 15-10 on the year, while college went 3-4 and is and 10-9-2 on the season. Both are sitting above .500, while NFL is off to a killer start since we’ve been tracking.
NFL does have significantly more bet recommendation volume on a weekly basis, so worth considering as we continue to track performance.
Top Hits:
-NFL Pick of The Week - Colts -14. This was the most heavily recommended pick and covered EASILY.
-Vanderbilt and Miss St. both covered as two of our top three college picks with Miss St. nearly hitting the ML rec as well, but falling short in the end after handling Texas for 3+ quarters. This is the second underdog that has easily covered against Texas. Vanderbilt is on the road against Texas this week 👀
-The Bills, Cowboys/Broncos Over, and Texans all hit comfortably in other NFL action.
Biggest Misses:
-Lots of confidence in LSU, who has since fired Brian Kelly after a disappointing home loss in spite of a $54 million buyout. At least we’ll always have this moment. Geaux Tigers.
-Falcons were an incredibly popular pick, but Dolphins brought them back down to earth. Food for thought for this weekend, but the Pats have been picked against back to back weeks by podcasts and are now a TD favorite for the third straight week.
-The college pick of the week also lost for the first time, with Iowa State losing at home.
Thursday Night Football: Ravens (-7.5) @ Dolphins
It is TOO quiet on recommendations for Ravens and Dolphins after heavy recommendation volume on back to back Thursday nights. The only line reference is Ravens teased down to -1.5 by one podcast.
Props that are popping up include Waddle over receiving yards and receptions, as well as an Isiah Likely anytime TD with Lamar back in action.
Sorry we don’t have more here, but the Lamar uncertainty has had analysts quiet on this one.
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