PodSharp Certified Recap & TNF Action - 11/20

A look back at last week's performance and some Certified TNF Picks

Good afternoon, Sharps. We are now two weeks into PodSharp certified and absolutely CRUSHING. We raised our threshold in confidence for CFB picks and only had two selections, bouncing back to 1-1. NFL went 3- 1 on TNF and 5-2 on Sunday/Monday, bringing us to 8-3 on the week.

We are tracking everything we recommend so feel free to take a more detailed look here at how we’re doing.

Certified Pick Performance Tracking

Year To Date Performance

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NFL Performance

The NFL Picks from Thursday - Monday ended with a 73% hit rate.

Recap below. Feel free to scroll to the bottom to get straight to the Certified & Approved Picks for Bills/Texans tonight.

Certified Picks (3-1 YTD)

• Patriots -11.5 ✅

• Cowboys -3 ✅

• Jaylen Warren over 19.5 Receiving Yards ❌

Patriots continue to give up a first drive TD, scare the crap out of everyone, and then completely handle business. It’s statistically proven - shouts out to Dan Pizzuta of Snaps and Stats.

Cowboys handled the Raiders, and a tough beat on all Warren props as he went down early in the third quarter and didn’t return to action.

Approved Picks (11- 4 YTD)

• Patriots 1H -6.5 ✅

• Breece Hall Under 60.5 Receiving Yards ✅

• Breece Hall Over 16.5 Receiving Yards ❌

• Bears +3 ✅

• Seahawks +3 ✅

• Broncos +4.5 ✅

• George Pickens over 70 ✅

• Derek Henry Under 76.5 Rushing Yards ❌

Overall a great week, with the Pats covering first half and Breece squeaking UNDER the rushing prop against a stout Pats run D. Seahawks had a nail-biting cover in spite of Darnold throwing 4 picks. Derek Henry missed with a bullet after breaking a 60 yarder.

EV Picks (2-0 YTD)

Outside of PodSharp Certified, we are also looking at high EV picks (Expected Value). These picks are going to have high confidence from our model like Certified Picks and are giving you better odds than a traditional spread pick (-110). Due to longer odds, you’re always going to be looking at a lower probability outcome bet here, but the plus money could be worth it on these moving forward.

• Broncos ML (+190) ✅

• Josh Allen Over 223.5 Passing Yards ✅

We’re working on an additional metric called Podsharp Edge, to help give you the most likely picks to hit and the highest EV picks.

CFB Update

CFB was 1-1 on the week. Penn State was recommended at -7 and cruised to a 28-10 victory.

Texas A&M (-19.5) on the other hand was on upset alert and gave the Gamecocks every chance to pull the upset. A&M held on but never sniffed a large cover here.

• Penn State -7 ✅

• Texas A&M -19.5 ❌

Last Week Look-Back - Trending Picks

Trending pick recaps are a look back on what picks were the most popular amongst analysts last week.

Top Hits:

-Bills (-5.5) handled business against the Bucs at home, covering comfortably.

-Navy was getting +10.5 and won outright, potentially getting themselves their first ever trip to the CFP.

Biggest Misses:

-The college pick of the week ended it’s heater, with Texas crashing back to reality against top SEC competition in Georgia.

-Vikings -3 were a top trending pick, but the model won out as it flagged the Bears. JJ McCarthy has a loonnnnggg way to go and guessing the books will rightfully stop respecting the Vikings for the rest of season.

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